A look into the 2024 NFL season using TPR
- IamCogs
- Nov 24
- 20 min read
I finally got around to finishing up the full on TPR (True Passer Rating) scores for every QB who made a start in the 2024 season. (the one caveat I would like to point out is that sacks were counted wholesale, PFF gives us QB at fault sack data but not on a per game basis, so the 2024 grades for TPR will be using raw sack data adjusted by the league average of QB at fault sacks. That number is calculated using this database.)
It is also worth noting that these rankings are based solely off their TPR scores, and don't take into account QB grading, or personal opinion. Nor does it reflect historical performance or data, this is rankings from the 2024 season alone.
59 Quarterbacks made at least 1 start in the 2024 season, here are their numbers for each and every start, with their average TPR on the far right column. (Click on the image to expand it, you can also find this chart here.)
We're going to take a look at what this data says and break down QB's with the following tiers:
MVP Front Runner Quarterbacks
Franchise Quarterbacks
Solid Starting Quarterbacks
Fringe Starting Quarterbacks
Young and Developing Quarterbacks
Replacement Level Quarterbacks
Unplayable Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks who made 10+ starts will be covered, as well as quarterbacks who have a history of being a teams' starting quarterback. Tiers are based off the 2024 season alone, and not indicative of a players entire career.
MVP Front Runner Quarterbacks
This tier, like the name suggests, is saved for the best of the very best. These Quarterbacks play at a level that only a few can reach, and as such have been named MVP in the past, or deserve it in the future.
1.) Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
2024: 156.5 Average True Passer Rating
17 Starts, 4,172 Yards, 41 TD, 4 INT
66.7% Comp%, 9.3 ADOT, 119.9 Rating
4x Pro Bowl, 3x All-Pro 2x MVP
Lamar Jackson provides a unique blend of being able to accurately push the ball down the field, while keeping the ball out of harms way. And this doesn't even begin to touch on his value with the ball in his hand. His 0.8% Int% in 2024 and 10:1 touchdown to interception ratio speak to this. Of all quarterbacks he was the only quarterback in 2024 to post a TPR north of 200 more than one, doing it 3 times. (204.7 @ Tampa Bay, 210.6 vs. Denver, 216.8 @ Giants) He hit on 41.8% adjusted on deep shots in 2024, racking up 9 touchdowns and no interceptions, he also was killer in the intermediate, completing 75.4% adjusted for 18 touchdowns and just 1 interception. Insane numbers.
2.) Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
2024: 133.5 Average True Passer Rating
16 Starts, 3,731 Yards, 28 TD, 6 INT
63.6% Comp%, 8.7 ADOT, 102.6 Rating
3x Pro Bowl, 1x MVP
The actual 2024 MVP has his best season in 2024, accounting for 40 total touchdowns, 28 of which through the air. He was one of the best quarterbacks deep in 2024, completing deep throws at an adjusted 42.5% clip, and his off-platform and creative ability rivals that only of Lamar Jackson. While I think Lamar deserved MVP in 2024, Allen's value to the Bills offense cannot be understated.
3.) Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
2024: 133.3 Average True Passer Rating
15 Starts, 3,389 Yards, 25 TD, 11 INT
63.1% Comp%, 9.2 ADOT, 92.7 Rating
2020 26th overall pick
While the overlying numbers don't jump out at you, Jordan Love was extremely efficient in pushing the ball down the field, despite 11 interceptions on the season. He had 4 starts that topped 150+ TPR, and only 3 starts below 120 TPR on the season. His extreme consistency when it comes to hitting TPR metrics makes him a very valuable passer.
4.) Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
2024: 144.0 Average True Passer Rating
10 Starts, 2,145 Yards, 15 TD, 5 INT
67.7% Comp%, 8.6 ADOT, 101.0 Rating
4x Pro Bowl
Despite having the second highest TPR score among these QB's, Carr gets knocked down a peg due to only making 10 starts in 2024. Carr, in my eyes, was a criminally underrated quarterback that was almost always saddled down by bad circumstance. In his 11 year career he was on 3 winning teams, and the best of them, the 2016 Raiders, saw he play at MVP levels (he finished 3rd in MVP voting.) With an adjusted 43.6% deep ball completion %, he rivaled Josh Allen in deep lethality. Sad we won't get to see Derek Carr sling it anymore.
Franchise Quarterbacks
Reserved for long-term leaders, this tier features quarterbacks capable of elevating a roster and sustaining success. They may not hit MVP heights every season, but they’re the definition of franchise pillars.
5.) Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
2024: 118.2 Average True Passer Rating
15 Starts, 3,864 Yards, 20 TD, 12 INT
65.9% Comp%, 9.0 ADOT, 96.1 Rating
1x Pro Bowl
Might be a surprise for some, and say what you want about "system quarterbacks" but if you run a system as well as Purdy does Shanahan's, you deserve some praise. With 38.1% of his attempts attacking beyond the sticks, and an adjusted 46.9% of his deep throws being completed, it becomes clear why Purdy was 9th in the league in ADOT. While the raw numbers aren't there the underlying metrics all scream efficiency, and he does a great job limiting at-fault sacks, which keeps your TPR nice and healthy. Purdy charted 3 starts with a TPR over 185 in 2024.
6.) Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
2024: 115.4 Average True Passer Rating
17 Starts, 4,319 Yards, 35 TD, 12 INT
66.2% Comp%, 9.2 ADOT, 102.5 Rating
1x Pro Bowl
Sam Darnold was one of the best comeback stories if 2024, originally slated to back up rookie J.J. McCarthy, he took over the starting roll after a season-ending torn meniscus sidelined McCarthy. And Sam was spectacular. He was one of the best deep ball throwers in the NFL completing an adjusted 54.4% to the deep level. He was an unexpected offensive spark for a Vikings team that needed one there after the loss of McCarthy. His 5.6% big time throw % was 6th in the league and helped lead the Vikings to 14 wins, the second most in franchise history.
7.) Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
2024: 113.3 Average True Passer Rating
17 Starts, 4,629 Yards, 37 TD, 12 INT
72.4% Comp%, 7.0 ADOT, 111.8 Rating
4x Pro Bowl
Jared Goff had his best season of his professional career in 2024, setting career highs in touchdowns, rating, completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and success rate. Piloting the 4th best scoring offense of all time, Goff was accurate, efficient and (mostly) consistent. He was 1 of only 6 quarterbacks to have a TPR score north of 200 in a game on the season, racking up a 208.3 in week 11 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. While not a world beater deep (41.9% Adj% deep) he picked his spots well, and his ability to delivery the ball with accuracy keep the chains moving for the Lions in 2024.
8.) Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
2024: 111.1 Average True Passer Rating
17 Starts, 4,918 Yards, 43 TD, 9 INT
70.6% Comp%, 7.7 ADOT, 108.5 Rating
2x Pro Bowl 2x AP Comeback Player
Joe Burrow had a banner 2024 season, leading the league in completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns, 1st downs and passing yards per game. He was PFF's highest graded passer in 2024 clocking in at 93.9 on the season. He is one of the games best deep passers, with 20 of his 23 deep throws being big time throws, including a 43.6% Adj%. He had 5 starts in 2024 with a TPR over 145, but had a few valleys that dragged his overall score down, with 4 starts scoring under 80 TPR.
9.) Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2024: 110.2 Average True Passer Rating
17 Starts, 4,500 Yards, 41 TD, 16 INT
71.4% Comp%, 7.3 ADOT, 106.8 Rating
2x Pro Bowl
After a strong 2023 campaign, essentially reviving his career, Baker Mayfield followed this up with 41 touchdowns, good enough to tie for 2nd in the league. And while his ball security, especially throwing, struggled (lead the league in interceptions) he was overall on target, and was one of the better deep ball throwers in the league. (45.1% Adj%). His penchant to extend plays lead to a higher level of at fault sacks, and was suspect to some clunkers of games (5 games under 66 TPR, including -11.5 vs. Denver). But his highs were worth it, including two games with a TPR north of 190.
Solid Starting Quarterbacks
These quarterbacks provide reliable, above average play that keeps an offense stable. They can execute a game plan, limit mistakes, and elevate their team when needed, making them solid and trustworthy starters.
10.) Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
2024: 108.3 Average True Passer Rating
17 Starts, 3,870 Yards, 23 TD. 3 INT
65.9% Comp%. 9.0 ADOT, 101.7 Rating
2020 AP Offensive RotY 1x Pro Bowl
No one had more deep throw touchdowns than Justin Herbert, leading the league with 10 (tied with Sam Darnold) despite a serious lack of weapons in LA in 2024. He charted 8 starts with a TPR over 110, however was dragged down a bit by a brutal 16.7 score against the Falcons in week 12. he flat out refused to throw interceptions in 2024, with just 3 on 504 attempts, good for a 0.6% Int%. 16 of his 23 touchdowns came from 10 yards and beyond, proving that you don't always need elite weapons to go deep.
11.) Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
2024: 108.2 Average True Passer Rating
16 Starts, 3,762 Yards, 20 TD, 8 INT
65.8% Comp%, 8.0 ADOT, 93.7 Rating
2x Pro Bowl, 1x AP Comeback Player, 1x Super Bowl Champion
One of the longest tenured starting quarterbacks in the league still has a lot left in the tank. Despite a year that saw him missing his top two receiving targets for portions of the year, he still put together a very solid year, and is still a solid deep ball thrower despite his age, completing an adjusted 41.1% and collecting 16 big time throws deep. He charted one of his lowest Int% season in his career at just 1.5%, and had the second highest TPR game for a single game in 2024, charting a 211.3 against the New England Patriots in week 11.
12.) Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
2024: 106.8 Average True Passer Rating
17 Starts, 3,851 Yards, 21 TD, 11 INT
68.8% Comp%, 7.4 ADOT, 93.5 Rating
2x Pro Bowl 2019 AP Offensive RotY
Kyler Murray put together one of his best seasons since 2021, completing nearly 70% of his passes, and despite a near league average ADOT of 7.4, mainly hampered by attempting just 30.3% of his passes past 10 yards, his efficiency in completing passes kept his TPR high for most of the season. His best game came week 2 against the Rams, where he went of for a 217.3, the highest single game score of quarterbacks still starting in 2025. A fantastic bounce-back from his week 1 score of 27.8 against Buffalo.
13.) Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
2024: 104.3 Average True Passer Rating
14 Starts, 3,508 Yards, 18 TD, 16 INT
66.9% Comp%, 8.0 ADOT, 88.6 Rating
4x Pro Bowl
The season for Kirk Cousins sort of derailed the longer it progressed. Despite being 4th in adjusted completion % deep at 50.0%, Cousins threw 9 interceptions over his last 5 games, prompting the Falcons to see what they had in Michael Penix for the last 3 games of the year. Kirk had 6 games with a TPR above 120, but his end of the season stretch say 3 of those games with a TPR below 65.
14.) Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
2024: 103.9 Average True Passer Rating
10 Starts, 2,045 Yards, 11 TD, 7 INT
60.6% Comp%, 9.9 ADOT, 85.2 Rating
1x Pro Bowl
Trevor Lawrence's season started off very slow, with the first three games of the season seeing a TPR score lower than 90, but he bounced back, rattling off 4 consecutive games where he averaged 141.5 per game. But injuries ultimately put the kibosh on his 2024 season. Lawrence tied with Kirk Cousins in adjusted deep completion % at 50.0% and his 9.9 ADOT was 2nd among all quarterbacks with a minimum of 145 dropbacks. Glimpses of the franchise quarterback the Jaguars are hoping to see.
Fringe Starting Quarterbacks
These quarterbacks can hold down a starting job, but only under favorable conditions. While capable of solid stretches, their performance often fluctuates, placing them just outside the league’s dependable starter group.
15.) Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
2024: 98.5 Average True Passer Rating
11 Starts, 2,485 Yards 16 TD, 5 INT
63.7% Comp%, 8.4 ADOT, 95.6 Rating
10x Pro Bowl 1x Super Bowl Champion
Russ was slated as the week starter for the Steelers, but injury issues in the preseason tabbed Justin Fields as the starter for the first 6 weeks. Once health Russ returned, playing (statistically) some of his best football since he left Seattle. His week 7 return saw him immediately post a a 146.1 TPR, and he would go on to post a TPR north of 100 in 6 of his first 7 starts. But he hit a wall for the last 2 games of the season posting a 45.5 against the Chiefs and a 45.2 against the Bengals to close the season out. His deep ball still remained elite, completing an adjusted 52.3% of his deep balls, second to only Sam Darnold. Russ showed he could still cook a bit, especially with one of the league premier deep ball receivers in George Pickens.
16.) Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
2024: 98.4 Average True Passer Rating
8 Starts, 1,978 Yards, 11 TD, 8 INT
64.7% Comp%, 8.3 ADOT, 86.0 Rating
3x Pro Bowl 2016 AP Offensive RotY
Dak's 2024 season was unfortunately cut short due to injury, and while 5 of his 8 starts saw TPR's north of 100, including a high water mark of 137.9 against the 49ers in week 8, that start was sandwiched between a 36.4 TPR start against the Lions and a 51.3 TPR start against the Falcons. Dak was great deep on 34 attempts, hitting at a rate of 50.0% adjusted, and his respectable 8.3 ADOT was good for 12th in the league.
17.) Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
2024: 95.9 Average True Passer Rating
17 Starts, 4,320 Yards, 21 TD, 15 INT
70.4% Comp%, 7.6 ADOT, 93.2 Rating
2x Pro Bowl, 1X AP Comeback Player
Geno Smith had a great season throwing deep, completing an adjusted 49.2% of his attempts, but the turnover bug bit him badly in 2024, where he had 4 games with multiple interceptions thrown. 11 of his 14 interceptions came beyond 10 yards, and 9 of his 17 starts saw him record a TPR below 100, with 5 of those below 61. His best start of the season came on the road in Atlanta, where he posted a 169.0 TPR.
18.) Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
2024: 95.8 Average True Passer Rating
17 Starts, 3,897 Yards 28 TD, 11 INT
63.0% Comp%, 7.3 ADOT, 90.5 Rating
10x Pro Bowl 4x All-Pro 4x MVP 1x Super Bowl Champion
Much like the 2024 season for the Jets, Aaron Rodgers' 2024 season didn't meet the hype. While he still has a respectable deep ball, completing them at an adjusted 42.9%, his 10 yards and beyond throwing in 2024 was just 29.1%, while nearly 50% of his attempts were between 1 and 9 yards. There were some vintage Rodgers games, notably week 8 against the Patriots (162.4 TPR) and week 15 against the Jaguars (161.3 TPR), those highs weren't enough to overcome the lows, as he recorded 9 games under 100 TPR, including a brutal -57.9 TPR again the Bills in week 17.
19.) Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
2024: 95.6 Average True Passer Rating
15 Starts, 2,903 Yards, 18 TD, 5 INT
68.7% Comp%, 8.4 ADOT, 103.7 Rating
2x Pro Bowl 1x Super Bowl Champion, Superbowl LIX MVP
Obviously Eagles fans are over the moon with Hurts' 2024 season, which ultimately lead to a Super Bowl win and Hurts being named Super Bowl MVP. And the value he brings with his ability to run is not fully captured with TPR. His deep ball was lower half in the league, hitting on just 40.5% adjusted. 9 of his 15 starts saw a TPR under 100, including 3 under 40, but 2 big games against the Browns (174.8) and the Bengals (178.3) highlight his season. His respectable 8.4 ADOT put him in the top half of the league, but I would like to see Hurts take bigger steps into becoming a more well rounded passer.
20.) Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
2024: 94.2 Average True Passer Rating
16 Starts, 3,928 Yards, 26 TD, 11 INT
67.5% Comp%, 6.9 ADOP, 93.5 Rating
6x Pro Bowl 2x All-Pro 2x MVP 3x Super Bowl Champion
It might be surprising to see Mahomes this low, but the underlying metrics of a decent statistical season paint a better picture. Mahomes was dead last in deep ball adjusted completion at just 26.1%, his ADOT was below league average, and he had just 3 starts in 2024 that broke 110 TPR. 9 of his 15 starts saw a TPR below 100 as Mahomes relied on throws under 10 yards at a 64.2% clip. His real struggle was the deep middle of the field, where he hit on just 1 throw on 14 attempts, registering a 0.0 NFL Passer Rating. 2024 Mahomes was not the same Mahomes we saw in years prior.
21.) Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
2024: 93.1 Average True Passer Rating
11 Starts, 2,867 Yards, 19 TD, 7 INT
72.9% Comp%, 6.1 ADOT, 101.4 Rating
1x Pro Bowl
Tua Tagovailoa's 2024 season was marred by injury, after suffering a brutal concussion that many thought may have ended his career, he came back after missing 4 games and played respectably. While the raw numbers look good, especially leading the league in completion percentage, the underlying number hid the truth. His 6.1 ADOT was last of 44 qualified quarterbacks. He lead all qualified quarterbacks in throws behind the line of scrimmage, with 26.3% of his attempts targeting that area, nearly 4% more than Bo Nix in 2nd. A brutal game week 15 in Houston punctuated the season, where he put in just a 12.6 TPR.
22.) C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
2024: 92.7 Average True Passer Rating
17 Starts, 3,737 Yards, 20 TD, 12 INT
63.2% Comp%, 8.6 ADOT, 87.0 Rating
1x Pro Bowl, 2023 AP RotY
After a fantastic 2023 rookie campaign that earned him rookie of the year honors, C.J. Stroud had an up and down 2024. Despite getting 2 more starts in 2024, he threw for 400 less yards, 3 less touchdowns and 7 more interceptions while being sacked 52 times, 2nd most in the league. He completed on just 38.7% of his deep throws, and 10 of his 17 starts were below 100 TPR, including -5.7 against the Packers and a 0.1 against the Jets. His high water game came against the Chiefs on the road, where he posted a 147.8.
Replacement Level Quarterbacks
This tier represents quarterbacks who can fill in when needed but offer limited upside. They’re capable of running an offense at a basic level, yet their performance rarely rises above what a team can find on the open market.
23.) Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
2024: 89.4 Average True Passer Rating
12 Starts, 2,403 Yards, 15 TD, 9 INT
60.9% Comp%, 9.0 ADOT, 82.2 Rating
2023 1st Overall Pick
Bryce Young had a pretty tumultuous 2024, as he was benched after 2 starts into the 2024 season, games where he posted just a 31.4 and 37.2 TPR. He bounced back, though posting a 125 TPR or better in the last 6 of his 10 starts, including a fantastic 155.6 outing against the Atlanta Falcons to close out the season. He was good deep, hitting 50.9% adjusted completions, but his intermediate throwing left a lot to be desired, hitting just 58.5%, good for 30th in the league, tanking his overall efficiency, and his week 15 game against the Cowboys was one of the worst games of the season, charting in at -52.0 TPR.
24.) Daniel Jones, New York Giants
2024: 82.2 Average True Passer Rating 10 Starts, 2,070 Yards, 8 TD, 7 INT
63.3% Comp%, 7.5 ADOT, 79.4 Rating
2019 6th Overall Pick
The Daniel Jones era in New York went out with a fizzle, Jones signed a 4 year, $160 millions extension with the Giants in 2023, but it never panned out, as just a year and a half later Jones was released from the Giants. Jones had a strong streak of games from weeks 2 to 4 where he averaged 132.3 TPR, but his remaining 7 starts saw a TPR average of just 60.7, which included a disastrous week 7 start at home where he posted a -57.4 TPR. He was 36th in the league in deep ball adjusted completion, hitting just 32.3%. He showed glimpses of that 1st round talent with a 122.0 TPR week 9 against the Commanders, but an underwhelming 89.3 against the Panthers was all that she wrote for Jones' time in New York.
25.) Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
2024: 80.5 Average True Passer Rating
6 Starts, 1,106 Yards, 5 TD, 1 INT
65.8% Comp%, 7.8 ADOT, 93.3 Rating
2021 11th Overall Pick
Oh, Justin Fields the debate rages on for you. Fields saw 6 starts in Pittsburgh, and the overlying numbers look fairly good for the 4th year quarterback. Along with the 5 touchdown passes, he rushed for 5 more. But the Steelers offense averaged just 20.7 points a game and 184.3 yards passing a game with Fields under center as he was benched in favor of veteran Russel Wilson. Fields was mostly unremarkable as a passer, posting just 1 game with a TPR north of 100 (104.5, week 3 against the Chargers.) While 65.8% of his passing attempts traveled less than 10 yards in 2024 which was a career low. He did hit on 44.2% adjusted of his deep shots, an area Justin has always been respectable in his career.
26.) Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders
2024: 73.7 Average True Passer Rating
9 Starts, 2,013 Yards, 9 TD, 10 INT
66.3% Comp%, 6.2 ADOT, 81.0 Rating
1x Pro Bowl
I have such a weak spot for Gardner, if I'm being honest. He burst on to the scene with Jacksonville and took the league by storm (so much so that I even bought a Minshew Jaguars jersey.) But here we are in 2024 and Minshew is seeing starts in Las Vegas. And sadly, they weren't pretty. Posting just 2 starts above 100 TPR, with the remaining 7 all under 80 TPR. He hit on a decent 40.9% adjusted deep, but only 34.0% of his throws traveled past 10 yards, explaining his 2nd to last in the league 6.2 ADOT. Minshew was just plainly mid in 2024 and is justifiably a backup level quarterback.
Unplayable Quarterbacks
In this tier are players whose performance makes it nearly impossible to sustain an effective offense. They lack the tools needed to operate at a professional standard, rendering them unplayable in meaningful situations.
27.) Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots
2024: 41.5 Average True Passer Rating
5 Starts, 826 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
59.0% Comp%, 7.3 ADOT, 74.2 Rating
1x Super Bowl Championship
There was good reason the Patriots decided to move on to the 3rd overall pick in 2024. Brissett's 2024 season was pretty brutal, leading a fairly ineffective Patriots offense, throwing just 2 touchdowns in 5 starts, and posting a TPR high of just 87.1 week 1 against the Bengals. Brissett hit on just 22.2% adjusted on deep throws. The Patriots averaged just 165.2 yards passing per game under Brissett, and he recorded 2 TPR scores in the negatives (-15.1 week 3 against the Jets and -1.1 week 4 against the 49ers.) Handing the keys of the offense over to the rookie was the right choice in New England.
28.) Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
2024: 40.2 Average True Passer Rating
7 Starts, 1,115 Yards, 7 TD, 4 INT
61.4% Comp%, 7.1 ADOT, 79.0 Rating
3x Pro Bowl
Legal and character issues aside, Watson's time in Cleveland has been an unmitigated disaster marred by injuries, and underperformance. 2024 was no different. Watson's 6 starts saw 0 games of a TPR above 80, half of those starts registering a TPR below 15. In limited duty Watson hit on just 26.3% adjusted deep throws while 66.2% of his throws were under 10 yards of depth. In just 7 starts he was sacked 33 times, a pace of 80 sacks over a 17 game season. After re-rupturing his right Achilles tendon, Watson's time as a starter in Cleveland, and the NFL may be done.
29.) Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
2024: 34.8 Average True Passer Rating
12 Starts, 2,091 Yards, 13 TD, 12 INT
63.1% Comp%, 9.1 ADOT, 81.4 Rating
2023 33rd Overall Pick
Will Levis was a nightmare in 2024. Not only was he sacked 41 times in 2024, he threw 12 interceptions, lost 6 fumbles and was the 42nd PFF rated passer of 44 qualified starters, beating out Spencer Rattler and Drew Lock. Levis' one saving grace was his deep ball, where he completed 44.7% adjusted, but still threw 6 interceptions deep, which amounts to about 15.8% of his deep attempts. Only 2 of his starts was a TPR above 100, while half of his starts saw a TPR below 35, including an ASTOUNDING -169.0 TPR in an absolute trainwreck start against the Bengals in week 15. The Titans drafted 1st overall in 2025, drafting Levis' replacement in Cam Ward.
Young and Developing Quarterbacks
Home to ascending talents, this tier features young passers learning the speed and complexity of the league. Their current play may be uneven, but their long-term upside keeps them firmly in the developmental conversation.
1.) Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
2024: 113.4 Average True Passer Rating
17 Starts, 3,775 Yards, 29 TD, 12 INT
66.3% Comp%, 7.8 ADOT, 93.3 Rating
1x Playoff Appearance 2024 12th Overall Pick
There was only one quarterback in the league that like throwing deep more than Bo Nix, and that was Caleb Williams. But Nix say success deep at a level in 2024 that Williams did not, leading all rookie quarterbacks in adjusted completion % at 47.9%. And while 61.6% of his passing attempts targeted behind the line of scrimmage or short level of the field, tanking his ADOT a bit, he was accurate, especially for a rookie, finishing tied for 13th in adjusted completion %. While he did record 5 games under the baseline 100 TPR, he made up for that with 5 games above 140. Standard rookie peaks and valleys, but for Nix in 2024, higher peaks than low valleys.
2.) Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
2024: 90.9 Average True Passer Rating
17 Starts, 3,568 Yards, 25 TD, 9 INT
69.0% Comp%, 7.9 ADOT, 100.1 Rating
1x Pro Bowl 2024 AP Rookie of the Year 2024 2nd Overall Pick
The 2024 NFL Offensive rookie of the year had a phenomenal statistical year, which say the Commanders make their way to the NFC Championship, where they eventually fell to the eventual Super Bowl champions. Jayden's deep ball was below average according to league average, completing an adjusted 39.6% of deep throws, while 66.1% of his attempted passes were under 10 yards. That said he completed his throws at a very impressive 69.0% mark. Being a true dual threat quarterback, however, means TPR doesn't fully capture his offensive impact, but 4 games with a TPR north of 145 highlight exactly why Daniels was the offensive rookie of the year.
3.) Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
2024: 89.6 Average True Passer Rating
17 Starts, 3,541 Yards, 20 TD, 6 INT
62.5% Comp%, 8.1 ADOT, 87.8 Rating
2024 1st Overall Pick
I can talk for ages about Caleb for obvious reasons but I will do my best to keep this brief. Caleb, coach issues and organizational turmoil aside, had a very up and down rookie year. After opening the season with 2 bad outings (76.6 and 51.8 TPR) he rattled off 4 consecutive games of TPR north of 125, including 2 north of 150. Then the wheels feel off, 4 consecutive games below 100, including a disaster against the Patriots where he posted a -9.2 TPR. A very good outing against Detroit in week 16 saw him push the 150's once more, only to follow up with a 15.0 TPR stinker the next week. A lot of his issues in 2024 stemmed from at-fault sacks of which he took 42.5 per my grading. Caleb's deep ball was among the worst in the league, finishing 25th of 26 quarterbacks with a 28.0% adjusted completion, and a league worst 56.4 PFF grade.
4.) Drake Maye, New England Patriots
2024: 81.4 Average True Passer Rating
12 Starts, 2,276 Yards, 15TD, 10 INT
66.6% Comp%, 7.4 ADOT, 88.1 Rating
1x Pro Bowl 2024 3rd Overall Pick
After completely ineffective quarterbacking by Jacoby Brissett through the first 5 weeks of the 2024 NFL season, the Patriots turned to the 3rd overall pick to lead them the rest of the way. Maye's deep ball was clocked in at 36.7% adjusted completion, and he suffered from ball security issues throwing 10 interceptions and losing 6 fumbles. But some flashes came through, including 2 starts with a TPR above 130, and despite the issues with turnovers, sacks, and dysfunction of a losing team on a year 1 coach, half of Maye's starts say a TPR above 100. Maye struggled in the intermediate in 2024, completing just 54.2% adjusted and throwing 5 of his 10 interceptions there. But the talent was there.
TPR Anomaly
Reserved for the strangest data points, this tier captures a quarterback whose TPR profiles don’t behave like anyone else’s. They’re anomalies driven by rare combinations of efficiency, volatility, or situational quirks that skew their overall rating.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
2024: 106.8 Average True Passer Rating
11 Starts, 1,814 Yards, 8 TD, 12 INT
47.7% Comp%, 12.3 ADOT, 61.6 Rating
2023 4th Overall Pick
Anthony Richardson figured out a way to break my metric. Despite completing sub 50% of his passes and having a majority of (6 of 11) of his starts below 100 TPR, Richardson finished the 2024 season as the 16th highest rated passer per TPR. This was aided by a start where he threw just 4 passes and scored a 218.1 TPR on them, factoring that out leaves him with a 95.7 TPR, which, admittedly, still feels high. His propensity to throw deep really helps his numbers here as ADOT plays a good part in TPR calculation, and his 5+ yard per throw above league average ADOT seems to overcome the baked in penalty for completing less that 55% of one's passes. He hit on 36.0% adjusted deep throws, but he did make some of the more ridiculous deep throws of 2024.
Final Thoughts
When you lay every 2024 start out through the lens of True Passer Rating, a few things become clear. First, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jordan Love separated themselves not just with raw numbers, but with efficiency at meaningful depths and an ability to avoid catastrophic mistakes. Second, the “middle class” of quarterbacks is bigger and more nuanced than box scores suggest. Quarterbacks like Purdy, Darnold, Goff, Herbert, and Murray win in very different ways, yet all graded out as consistently positive passers across the full season once you factor in depth of target, accuracy, and turnover impact.
At the same time, TPR exposes the fragility of some reputations and the volatility of others. Formerly elite names such as Mahomes and Rodgers ranked more like fringe or solid starters on a pure passing basis in 2024, while several young or unproven quarterbacks swung wildly from week to week. A few veterans and recent high picks fell into the replacement or unplayable tiers, which matches what the film and box scores hinted at, but quantifies just how damaging their passing output was to their offenses.
Finally, it is important to remember what this metric does and does not try to capture. TPR is focused on passing value within the structure of the offense and the context of depth, turnovers, and sacks, not on rushing production, scheme, supporting cast, or long term career value. Even with those limitations, TPR provides a useful framework for separating perception from passing impact and for identifying which quarterbacks truly elevated their offenses through the air in 2024, and which ones survived on reputation, rushing, or surrounding talent.