Caleb Williams Week 18 QB Grade: Bears vs. Lions
- IamCogs
- 3 days ago
- 10 min read
The script may be out on the Chicago Bears defense.
2 of the last 3 weeks has seen the Bears have just 3 drives in the first have, and over the last 3 games opposing offenses have focused on long, sustained drives, keeping the ball out of Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears’ hands on offense. The Detroit Lions held a 35:45 to 24:15 time of possession advantage over the Bears, churning out 26 first down, 433 yards, and gaining 6.0 yards per play, limiting the Bears’ top 10 offense chances with the ball.
But two touchdowns in the 4th quarter, including back-to-back 2-point conversions had the Bears in a dead heat with the Lions. But much like last week in Santa Clara, it came down to the last possession, this time it was the Lions running the clock down and hitting a game winning 42-yards field goal as time expired to earn the season sweep over the Bears in a game that was ultimately made not important due to the Washington Commanders defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 24-17, securing the 2nd seed in the NFC for the Bears, granting them at minimum 2 home games in the playoffs (assuming a wildcard round victory.)
Bears rookie Tackle Ozzy Trapilo was a game time scratch, thrusting Theo Benedet into the starting roll, and the absence was felt as the Bears focused on a more quick passing game, which worked well on it’s own, even opening up a deep shot touchdown to Jahdae Walker by taking advantage of aggressive safeties (we’ll cover that in our play breakdowns.)
The feeling I’m getting for our Wildcard matchup with the Packers is that we need to hit the ground running early, our second matchup with the Packers saw a very good opening drive go for naught due to a failed trick play and the seemed to sap any early momentum the Bears had.
Here’s to hoping the rubber match proves different.
Very quickly before we get into metrics and our play breakdowns just a quick announcement. Now that we’ve reached the end of the regular season, I will still be grading any playoff games we play, but in addition to that I will be doing a large scale breakdown of the entire season once we reach the end of it (hopefully that’s 5 weeks from now.)
So stay tuned for that, to find out where all of this has lead us!
Benchmarks
(Totals and averages are all before week 18: Season totals are underlined, Season averages in Italics)
C/A: 310/535 (57.9%) | 19.4/33.4 (57.9%) | 20/33 (60.6%)
Yards: 3730 | 233.1 | 212
Touchdowns: 30 | 1.9 | 2
Turnovers: 7 | 0.4 | 1
QB at Fault Sacks: 13 | 0.8 | 1
ADOT: 9.0 | 8.0
Passer Rating: 90.6 | 86.9
True Passer Rating: 126.0 | 122.5
Time to Throw: 3.02s | 2.71s
Time to Pressure: 2.67s | 2.68s
Pressure Rate: 31.25% | 24.32%
On-Target Rate: 66.9% | 78.6%
Poor Play Rate / Big Play Rate: 9.1% PPR / 7.9% BPR | 8.1% PPR / 2.7% BRP
Game Scorecard
The full grading sheet for each play can be found here.
Game Notes
NFL Passer Rating / True Passer Rating / PFF Grade: 86.9 / 122.5 /57.7
The average passer rating in the 2025 season sits at 91.4 through week 18. His 86.9 NFL Passer Rating would be considered a slightly below average
For once I feel like the NFL Passer Rating was the better representation numerical representation of his game on Sunday, especially as it aligns pretty well with his Average grade.
A 122.5 TPR is a solid Good game, with 100 serving as the baseline for “Average.”
Caleb’s ADOT helped this score a bit, charting an ADOT that was 1 yard above league average. I’m considering adjusting this bonus/penalty scale just a bit in the off-season to make it a tad bit harder to early a bonus from ADOT. (Currently you just need to complete 55% of your passes for that bonus to kick in if your ADOT is north of 7.0.)
On the PFF scale, a score of 59.9 or lower is considered an Below Average game. With a 57.7, Caleb Williams’ performance was graded as a below average game.
And I feel PFF didn’t fully hit the target here, they had him dinged for 3 turnover worthy plays on the afternoon, but I could not for the life of me find more than 2. Which ultimately I feel like leads to their grade being low.
On-Target Throws: Season Average: 66.9% | Week 18 vs. Lions: 79.3%
Reminder: Completion % ≠ On-Target %. On-target throws are only counted on aimed passes, so throw aways, spikes, and deflections at the line aren’t counted. And drops are counted as on-target.
Short-Level Passing (Behind LOS – 9 yards): 20/22 | 90.9% On-Target
Deep-Level Passing (10–20+ yards): 3/7 | 42.9% On-Target
We end the season once more hitting 70%+ on On-Target throwing, while deep level was less than stellar, a 90%+ On-Target in the short level, which is, ironically, where Caleb has been struggling this year is fantastic. He ends his year with a 67.6% On-Target rate, while not incredible, the fact that he improved that number nearly 15% from the first 5 weeks of the NFL season is extremely encouraging.
8.1% Poor Play Rate (turnover-worthy + poorly graded plays) against a 2.7% Big Play Rate (great + elite graded plays)
One of the few weeks in this back stretch of games where we saw a PPR higher than his BPR, on the plus side his PPR was still under his season average, as he did a good job chipping his PPR of 12.7% after the Week 7 game against the Saints. He finishes at 9.0% PPR on the year.
Time to Throw: His time to throw of 2.71 was the 4th lowest mark of the season, and lowest since Week 14 in Philadelphia. A big factor in this was the lack of usage of play-action, The Bears had just 9 drop backs out of play-action in week 18, on the season they averaged just about 13 a week.
Play-Action, very little action: One of the big reasons the Bears cut back on play-action was the loss of Ozzy Trapilo due to his quad injury. Theo Benedet was tabbed to start and he struggled all day in pass pro, accounting for a 39.8 pass block score per PFF.
Williams was 3 for 8 for 3 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception with a 45.8 Passer Rating in week 18.
His interception came with an interesting caveat.
Short and Sweet: The short passing game was a focus this week, due to (in my opinion the aforementioned loss of Trapilo). He completed 16 of 20 passes for 148 yards and a 97.5 Passer Rating. Further compounding the loss of Trapilo, Williams attempted just 2 passes to the left side of the field, the side Trapilo usually anchors, and the side Benedet struggled mightily against the Lions pass rush.
How about some Love(land) for the Rookies: If you’re not in the know, you’re about to be. Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland have been 2 of the best rookie pass catchers in the league. Burden finished top 3 in the league in yards per route run among ALL players, not just rookies. And leads all rookies in adjusted yards per route run by a wide margin.
Colston Loveland finished the year in the top 3 of many EPA categories, and in the top 10 for many others, the early season discourse of Warren over Loveland may have a bit overblown.
Play Reviews
The plays we’ll be reviewing are presented in the order they occurred in the game.
Analysis: The first play were going to look at is a very rare poor throw on a intermediate Dig route.
The Bears have Luther Burden split out at the top of the formation, DJ Moore goes into motion to join Luther up top. They will be running a Dagger concept with Burden running the clear route down the middle of the field and DJ running the In. Loveland and Kmet both stay in to work on Hutchinson, with Loveland release into a shallow Cross.
This is a play I feel like Caleb Williams unnecessarily throws with anticipation, and by doing so puts the ball in danger. In normal circumstances you would praise the anticipation especially into the middle/deep level of the field but the Lions drop Jack Campbell back to cover that area, putting him in direct conflict with the balls flight path.
If Caleb waits out DJ’s break just a tick, and he has the time to do so with a good pocket, he can start his throw when DJ is behind Campbell while leading him towards the logo, this gives DJ a much easier window of opportunity to haul this in and pick up some YAC. Instead it’s a throw into a window that isn’t there, and a dangerous one, luckily the ball falls incomplete.
Analysis: On to a play I’ve come to expect Loveland to make, but unfortunately he didn’t.
Bears once again set DJ in motion, allowing Caleb to identify zone coverage. DJ and Burden are essentially running a Cross concept with DJ running the trail route. Caleb fields the snap, completes his drop, and unfortunately Theo Benedet loses his rep pretty badly, as Hutchinson beats the left tackle around the edge, forcing Caleb to step up into the pocket. It’s enough to disrupt the design of the play, as the pressure forces Caleb to miss the timing on hitting Burden on the Dig who is wide open on it.
Stepping up into the pocket, Caleb tosses a ball to Colston in a area only Colston to get his hands on it, which he does, getting both and initially securing the catch, but the defender separates him from it as his being taken to the ground, forcing the incompletion and a turnover on downs.
Loveland has showcased some pretty strong hands this year, but unfortunately on this rep, they don’t surface.
Analysis: On to a throw that I know both Jahdae and Caleb want back.
We get some nice play-action boot on this one, with Jahdae Walker at the top of the screen running the deep Over, Loveland chipping and releasing to the flat, and Olamide Zaccheaus running the clearing route to make space for Walker.
Everything goes according to design here, the linebacker Jack Campbell bites hard on the play-action, opening a very large window for Caleb to throw to Walker who is wide open, unfortunately Caleb short arms the throw, forcing Walker to drop to his knees to try to catch this ball. Make no mistake this is a play that a wide receiver should be expected to make, however, with how open he was, with no pressure baring down on Caleb, this ball needs to be delivered out in front of Walker in stride.
Unfortunately a bad miss that caused the Bears to miss out on an explosive play.
Analysis: On to the interception, and I mulled over this one quiet a bit on how to grade.
A little bit of play-action once more as we have DJ Moore running the Corner-Post (Shake) route, Durham Smyth running the Over, and Loveland running the shallow flat pulling behind the offensive line.
Here’s what I like about it:
The decision, I feel, is good. DJ getting the safety to initially bite on the Corner route, flipping the safety around as he hits the Post stem.
The throw location I also feel is good, there’s a few things that happen that makes it look bad.
DJ slows just a tad to track the ball.
The safety bumps DJ off his route just enough to put DJ out of the play.
To compound this, DJ’s knee buckles causing him to lose all leverage on the play.
It’s of my personal opinion if the play is executed by designed without those factors, this ball in the worst case scenario is a contested ball incompletion, and absolute best case scenario a contested catch ala walk off touchdown against the Packers.
At the end of it all, sometimes the defense just makes a better play then the offense, and this I feel is one of those scenarios. So I graded it as a “Below Average, Turnover Worthy” play because I just cannot bring myself to not calling this a turnover worthy throw when the defender so clearly had to make no extra effort to create the turnover.
Analysis: How about Caleb’s best throw of the game now?
Burden and DJ Moore start at the top of the formation, motion quickly brings Burden down to pair with Walker. Loveland and DJ are running the Sit/In combo at the top, with Burden running a Sit route at the bottom side and Walker running the backside Post route.
That play I was talking about taking advantage of a defense trying to cheat on an underneath route? This is the play. And it’s an excellent example of longform playcalling.
Both Lions safeties here jump on the underneath In and Sit routes, Caleb starts his read going from right to left, reading the Sit/In, noticing the safety jumping the In, and quickly moving to the backside Post route, which comes completely uncovered due to the bottom side safety coming down to cover Burden’s Sit route.
It’s pitch and catch at that point, and Caleb delivers a well times and accurate ball over the middle of the field to Jahdae Walker, who only has to haul it in and step into the endzone.
This play is fantastic example of high level quarterbacking, combined with excellent play calling.
Analysis: Finally we end with another solid pass to Colston Loveland, and it showcases Caleb’s ability to both manipulate a defense with his eyes to create a window for a nice throw and a big gain.
Caleb is reading the concept at the top of the screen, with Cole Kmet running an underneath sit route, and Loveland running what I call a “sea-beam” route (seam-bend). It is of my opinion that this play is designed for a short, quick completion to Kmet, but Caleb creates something more using his eyes and anticipation. As Kmet is finishing his route, Caleb is loading up his throw, causing the linebacker responsible for Kmet to crash on him, thinking that the ball is going underneath, as it has many times in the game. But that opens up the bend route for Loveland behind the linebacker.
And with perfect placement and the aforementioned anticipation Caleb hits Loveland who picks up a good chunk of YAC, making a man miss and getting the Bears into the redzone. Loveland would be rewarded with a touchdown to end this drive, giving him a solid 6 to end his rookie campaign.
Simply put these were plays we did not see out of Caleb in 2024, and a testament to his ability to play the quarterback position at a very high level.
Summary
His final scores in week 18 of 1st Half (-1.20) / 2nd Half (0.80) / Game (-0.30) (Adjusted due to under 39 snap threshold.)
Of the seven quarterbacks I grade (with 2 being out to injury) Williams placed 5th this week, it was a pretty close race between every Quarterback not named Drake Maye this week, with grades outside of his ranging between 0.90 and -0.30.
Weekly scores of every QB I grade can be found here. This is the culmination of the entire NFL regular season, I graded exactly 100 this year, what a journey it has been. One I look forward to taking into the post-season and beyond!
Williams ends his season posting an average or higher score in 11 of 12 of his starts, with the lone below average game coming against the Pittsburgh Steelers, overall a fantastic stretch of football from the signal caller, and while I’m excited for his playoff start, I can’t wait to see the heights he takes us, and this offense in 2026.
The Packers come to town Saturday night, and oddly, I’m confident in this matchup, I truly think it’s time we change the narrative in this rivalry.
As always, Bear Down, and we will see you back here next week!
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