Predicting the 2026 NFC North

Using a custom built Python code with Monte Carlo simulations, I attempt to predict the 2026 NFC North standings.

We've finally made it.

The eve of meaningful football is upon us. We're just one day away from the Patriots and Seahawks squaring off in a Super Bowl LX rematch to kick off the 2026 NFL season, the first season-opening Super Bowl rematch since Broncos-Panthers in 2016.

Every year before the NFL kickoff, I like to predict both the result of every Bears game and their final record, along with how I think the NFC North standings will shake out. In previous years, I was a little less scientific about it, relying mostly on gut feeling and vibes.

But building off the Python model I created to predict Caleb Williams' 2025 and 2026 seasons (a bit more on that here) I created a new simulation model designed to project each team's win-loss record using a wide range of variables.

I then ran the model through 10,000 simulations and averaged the results to produce a projected record for each team in the NFC North.

Let's jump into the results.

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1st Place - Detroit Lions

Projected Record: 10.3 W – 6.7 L

Driving Factors

Despite losing Ben Johnson, the Lions still fielded a top-five offense in 2025, even with some lulls in play-calling that eventually led to Dan Campbell taking over for John Morton in Week 10. Detroit averaged 29.9 points per game with Morton calling plays and 26.9 under Campbell, but the overall talent level of this offense remains hard to ignore.

The Lions are still stacked at the skill positions. Jahmyr Gibbs remains one of the most dynamic running backs in football, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams both eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in 2025, and Sam LaPorta was on pace for more than 900 receiving yards before his season was cut short. Then there is Jared Goff, who leads the NFL with 13,768 passing yards over the last three seasons.

Detroit also benefits from a favorable schedule that ranks 27th in strength of schedule, and Ford Field remains a difficult place to play. The Lions have gone 18–7 at home over the last three seasons, good for a 72.0% winning percentage.

With an average projected win total of 10.3 across 10,000 simulations, the Lions look poised to roar back into the driver's seat of the NFC North and return to the playoffs.

Limiting Factors

Detroit will once again be breaking in a new offensive coordinator, with Drew Petzing taking over after spending the previous three seasons in Arizona. During that stretch, the Cardinals produced just one season in which they finished inside the top 12 in both yards and points, doing so in 2024.

While Detroit's offense was still good overall in 2025, it struggled at times, particularly against teams capable of consistently pressuring Goff. The offensive line, once the linchpin of the entire operation, took a significant step backward after returning just three starters from 2024, one of whom was playing out of position. That continuity issue hasn't completely gone away in 2026, as the Lions once again return just three starters along the line.

The defense also remains a concern. Injuries, releases and offseason departures have done little to move the needle for a unit that finished 22nd in points allowed last season, with the secondary taking the biggest hit. There is still legitimate star power on that side of the ball, but Detroit may have to lean heavily on those players early in the season while the rest of the defense finds its footing.

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2nd Place - Chicago Bears

Projected Record: 9.5 W - 7.5 L

Driving Factors

Ben Johnson brought the offensive success he had in Detroit with him to Chicago, turning a Bears offense that finished 28th in points and dead last in yards in 2024 into a unit that ranked 9th in points and 6th in yards in 2025. Since becoming an offensive coordinator in 2022, Johnson has never coached an offense that finished outside the top 10 in either category, with Chicago's 2025 finish representing the lowest ranking of that stretch.

The offensive line remains one of the strengths of the roster, finishing 4th in Football Insights' consensus rankings as of August 12, six spots ahead of Detroit, the next-best NFC North team at No. 10. Continuity should help as well, with Drew Dalman's retirement representing the lone departure from last year's primary starting group. Chicago moved quickly to replace him with veteran center Garrett Bradbury, while Ozzy Trapilo has already been activated from the PUP list as he works his way back from the ruptured patellar tendon he suffered in January.

Significant resources have also been invested in the back seven of the defense to increase it's overall youth and top-end speed. Losing Coby Bryant for potentially most of the regular season hurts, but the Bears added a viable veteran option in Xavier Woods, while a healthy Jaylon Johnson should provide a major boost after injuries limited him to just seven games in 2025.

Put it all together and the Bears land at an average of 9.5 wins across 10,000 simulations, good for second in the NFC North and another trip to the playoffs.

Limiting Factors

Despite plenty of rumors and expectations throughout the offseason, the Bears never made a significant investment in a defensive front that finished near the bottom of the league in several key metrics last season. Scheme-fit signings and later-round draft picks were used to address the group, but there is a valid concern that it simply wasn't enough to meaningfully move the needle.

There is also some natural turnover regression to account for. Chicago led the NFL with 33 takeaways and 23 interceptions in 2025, and while Al Harris-coached secondaries have consistently produced turnovers, his Dallas defensive backs led the NFL with 72 interceptions from 2021–24, expecting the Bears to lead the league again is probably asking too much.

The offensive line comes with a few questions of its own. Even with four primary starters returning, there is no guarantee Trapilo immediately returns to the level he showed late in 2025 following such a significant knee injury. There is also an undeniable drop-off on paper from Pro Bowler Drew Dalman to Garrett Bradbury, along with the challenge of rebuilding the center-quarterback communication between Bradbury and Caleb Williams. Dalman played every offensive snap last season and was a major piece of an offensive line that helped cut Williams' sack total from 68 as a rookie to just 24 in 2025.

Then there is the schedule. By the traditional strength-of-schedule calculation based on opponents' 2025 records, Chicago faces the hardest schedule in the NFL in 2026 at .550. Strength of schedule is neither the be-all, end-all nor the determining factor in these projections, but it does play a part. It's also worth noting that the Bears entered 2025 with the second-hardest schedule by the same measure and still won 11 games and the NFC North.

Take that for what you will.

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3rd Place - Green Bay Packers

Projected Record: 9.2 W - 7.8 L

Driving Factors

Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love give Green Bay one of the better returning play-caller/quarterback combinations in the NFC. Love took another step forward in 2025, finishing with a career-high 101.2 passer rating while ranking sixth in the NFL in passer rating and second among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per play. That continuity gives the Packers a solid foundation offensively.

The biggest boost, though, may simply be getting healthy. Tucker Kraft is back after tearing his ACL midway through last season, while Devonte Wyatt and Zach Bako-Bewele also return after injuries ended their 2025 campaigns. Kraft had already emerged as one of the league's better tight ends before going down, posting 489 yards and six touchdowns in just eight games.

Micah Parsons will not be ready for Week 1, but his eventual return gives the defense one of the best pass rushers in football. Green Bay's ceiling remains high if its core can stay healthy, and returning talent is easily the biggest factor working in its favor entering 2026.

Limiting Factors

The problem is just how many questions Green Bay has to answer.

Josh Jacobs is currently on the Commissioner's Exempt List while the NFL reviews misdemeanor battery and criminal-damage charges, leaving MarShawn Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson atop the backfield. The two have combined for just 34 career NFL carries, with Chris Brooks providing veteran depth behind them.

The passing game lost two of its most reliable options in Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, leaving Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and second-year receiver Matthew Golden to carry a much larger load. Watson and Reed have both dealt with injuries, while Golden managed just 361 yards and no touchdowns during an otherwise quiet rookie season.

Then there is the offensive line, which enters the season ranked 29th in the Football Insights consensus rankings. That's a major concern for an offense already dealing with uncertainty at running back and receiver.

Parsons' absence also looms large. After he left Green Bay's Week 15 loss to Denver, the Packers allowed 28.8 points per game over that span, the final three weeks of the regular season and their playoff loss. Parsons is currently on PUP and will miss at least the first four games, with Week 6 against Dallas viewed as a realistic target for his return.

Add in the NFL's tied-for-third-hardest strength of schedule at .538, and Green Bay enters 2026 with plenty of upside but a much wider range of outcomes than Detroit or Chicago. Those questions pull the Packers down to an average of 9.2 wins across 10,000 simulations, leaving them just outside my projected NFC playoff field.

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4th Place - Minnesota Vikings

Projected Record: 8.3 W - 8.7 L

Driving Factors

A Brian Flores defense is always a force to be reckoned with. Since arriving in Minnesota, his units have finished 13th, 5th and 7th in points allowed, while the 2024 defense tied for the NFL lead with 33 takeaways and led the league with 24 interceptions. Flores remains one of the most creative defensive minds in football, using pressure, disguise and exotic looks to consistently make life difficult on opposing quarterbacks.

The addition of Kyler Murray also provides an immediate upgrade over Minnesota's unstable quarterback situation from 2025. J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer combined to lead an offense that finished just 26th in scoring, despite having Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson at their disposal. The addition of Jauan Jennings gives Murray another reliable target, while Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason remain a solid one-two punch out of the backfield.

The offensive line also looks better on paper than it did a year ago, particularly with Christian Darrisaw healthy. After a season in which poor quarterback play dragged down production across the offense, even league-average play from Murray could provide a significant boost.

Limiting Factors

While Murray is an upgrade, there are still legitimate questions about how much he moves the needle. He hasn't replicated his 2021 Pro Bowl form, posting just one season above 7.0 yards per attempt since then. His 2024 bounce-back produced a 93.5 passer rating and 7.1 yards per attempt before those numbers fell to 88.6 and 6.0 over five games in 2025. Murray still completes passes at a high rate, 67.1% for his career, but the explosive downfield element hasn't consistently returned.

The offensive line is another concern despite looking improved on paper. Minnesota surrendered 60 sacks in 2025, and while I don't expect that number to repeat, it's difficult to completely dismiss after one offseason.

There is also a lot of defensive production to replace. Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave were released, and Jonathan Greenard was traded to Philadelphia. Minnesota used a first-round pick on Caleb Banks and a third-rounder on Domonique Orange to rebuild the defensive front, but that still requires a lot of immediate production from young players.

Add in the NFL's 11th-hardest strength of schedule at .519, and Minnesota enters 2026 with more projection-dependent pieces than the other three teams in the division. The Vikings went 9–8 last season with an expected record of 8.8–8.2 based on point differential, so the question becomes: did they do enough to meaningfully improve while also replacing what they lost?

My simulations say not quite. Minnesota finishes fourth in the NFC North with an average of 8.3 wins and 8.7 losses across 10,000 simulations.