Tyson Bagent - 2023 Season in Review

I feel like this is a perfect time to wrap up my thoughts from the film from the 2023 season due to the rising discourse around the back up QB spot and Case Keenum's addition.

I want to first say I legitimately have no ill will towards the guy, I root fully for anyone that puts on the Bears jersey and plays for us. By all accounts Tyson is a great person to be around, and his story going from D2 undrafted rookie to winning 2 starts for a bad NFL team is an inspiration.

But the facts are facts, in 2023 Tyson Bagent was an extremely limited QB. Has he progressed since? Hard to say personally as there's no meaningful tape to look at for 2024. I'd like to think so, otherwise he wouldn't still be a part of this team.

I will break down what I've learned in the following.

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The Good:

-Just to reiterate, I think it's a pretty amazing story that Tyson has came from a D2 school, stepped up and filled in for our injured QB1, and managed to play .500 ball. There's a QB's out there who came from large schools and were drafted highly who can't claim this (Jimmy Clausen, famously went 1-13 as a starter in his career.)

-Tyson was fantastic at sack avoidance, he took just 5 sacks in his 4.5 games and only 2 of those by my count were on him. His pressure to sack % was near 10% lower than Fields in 2023 (19.3% to 9.4%). Whether it was getting the ball out more quickly, or knowing when to give up on a play and take an incompletion, Tyson was better at it than Fields was.

-His time to throw was almost a half second faster than Fields (3.39 to 2.91) which also helped Tyson keep his sack numbers down.

-He possesses good mobility and decent escapability from the pocket. Early Jay Cutler-esque.

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The Bad:

-It became more and more apparent as I reviewed the tape his arm strength and ability to generate zip on throws were not great. Which lead to balls that should have been complete, either incomplete, or in worst case scenarios as turnovers.

-He also struggled with accuracy in all levels of the field, combined with below average arm talent this meant anticipation throws had to be perfect. Or they would be dangerous, and as we saw against the Saints, all 3 of his picks results from a combination of the issues above. When you can only rely on your QB to complete throws 0-5 yards down field, a defense will stop respecting the passing game. The Panthers showed us just that.

-He commonly struggled with going beyond the first read, with a good portion of his completions being the see it, throw it variety. (WR screens, RB screens, etc.)

-In his two wins as a starter he averaged just 162 yards of passing and throw just 1 TD between the two games. These were games that the running game saw ~150 yards per game and 3 total TD's. To summarize: those games were won mostly in spite of Bagent, not due to Bagent.

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The Ugly:

-He had a turnover worthy play rate double Justin Fields' (6.6 to 3.3). Ball security was a big issue for Bagent, especially when throwing into the intermediate level of the field. Despite only 150~ drop backs, he was 4th in the league in intermediate level turnovers.

-44% of his drives (18/41) ended in a 3 and out.

-Per PFF the worst rated QB with 150+ drop backs in the intermediate of the field, with 5 of his 6 interceptions coming there. -2 of his losses saw 6 of his 7 turnovers (only other turnover coming in the half he started against the Vikings.) -ADOT (6.6) was well below league average (~7.4) showing a lack of aggressiveness, or mistrust from coaching staff to allow Tyson to be aggressive. -Completed just 3 of 12 attempts of throws over 20 yards, for a league worst 25% completion. (There is, however a notable drop by Velus Jones that would have helped these numbers!) -Average 1st Half/2nd Half/Game Scores of -0.75/-2.65/-3.40. Per my grading scale this would put him in the "Bad" category of starting QB's. He also scored the worst graded half (-5.75) and game (-7.00) of the 60+ games I've graded all time.

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The Conclusion:

Tyson Bagent's lack of arm talent in both arm strength and accuracy makes him a low level backup QB. Combined with his struggles to move past his first read severely limits the types of offense Bagent can run successfully. While the ability to not take sacks is a fantastic bonus, not being able to have a QB with the arm talent to take advantage of those opportunities essentially cancels out that bonus (unless a player possesses elite athleticism to make a play with his feet, like Justin Fields.) Tyson is best used as a game manager relying on a steady diet of the running game and short safe passes to move the chains. Based off his 2023 film he should not be considered a starter quality QB.