Bo Nix - 2025 Season in Review
- IamCogs
- 17 hours ago
- 9 min read
Bo Nix may be one of the more intriguing quarterbacks to talk about in the league. Since coming to the league Nix has done nothing but compile stats. Over 8,500 total yards, 54 passing touchdowns, 9 rushing touchdowns, a career 24-10 starting record, which has equated to two playoff appearances in his first two seasons. There is a pretty prevailing thought that Nix is deserving of top 10 consideration given all this.
The 12th overall pick in the 2024 draft is the first quarterback in NFL history to record over 20 wins, 7,500+ passing yards, and 50+ total touchdowns in his first two seasons.
There's no telling how far the Broncos could have gone this year baring Nix suffering a broken ankle in the divisional round in the thrilling 33-30 overtime win against the Buffalo Bills, exorcising demons from the 2024 playoffs that saw the Broncos fall 31-7 to the same Bills team.
So certainly there is some credence to these top 10 claims?
Well, like many things, there's a bit more to the story for Nix.
After a 5 year career that saw Nix attempt the 8th most passes in NCAA history (1936), 879 of which came in the last 2 years within the Oregon spread/tempo offense, Nix was put into work within Sean Payton's west coast spread offense, which translates well for Nix's skillset, a quick-read offense predicated on easy decision making, and allowing your receivers to rack up YAC underneath the sticks.
This volumetric style of passing has translated into Nix attempting more passes (1179) and total dropbacks (1326) than any other quarterback in the league over the last two seasons.
In this review we will take a look at some metrics, some positives, some negatives, some areas of improvement to expand his game in 2026.
The Metrics:
For more on the information presented in the graphic above, click here.
QB Tier: This is my person opinion on where I believe he should be ranked as a quarterback among the 32 starters: Middle C tier, in the QB 20-24 range.
Archetype: Rhythm quarterback, with scrambling upside when the rhythm is disrupted, think late career Aaron Rodgers, but with scrambling upside.
Grade: This is the alphabetical score correlated to his average game score on the year. Nix left a lot to be desired when it comes to his overall accuracy and ability to throw with anticipation, thus far he has proven to be a low ceiling, high floor quarterback on tape, C-.
Metrics Breakdown
Quarterback ranking for each category is relative to the 7 quarterbacks graded in 2025.
Metric | Description | Value | Rank |
Avg. 1st Half | Average graded score for the 1st half. | -0.26 | 5th |
Avg. 2nd Half | Average graded score for the 2nd half. | -0.28 | 5th |
Avg. Game | Average graded score for a game. | -0.46 | 5th |
Good+ Games | Total Games with final grade "Good" or better. | 0 | 7th |
Bad- Games | Total Games with final grade "Bad" or worse. | 4 | t6th |
TPR | Average True Passer Rating. | 108.6 | 5th |
PFF | PFF Offensive Score for the season. | 75.2 | 5th |
Passer Rating | Season NFL Passer Rating. | 87.8 | 5th |
Adjusted% | Completions + drops / aimed throws (spikes/bats/throwaways excluded.) | 75.6% | 4th |
On-Target% | Throws that would have hit the intended receiving target (spikes/bats/throwaways excluded.) | 65.3% | 6th |
Positive Play% | Plays graded Above Average or higher / total snaps. | 16.91% | 7th |
Negative Play% | Plays graded Below Average or lowers / total snaps. | 24.04% | 3rd |
Neutral Play% | Plays graded Average or Ungraded / total snaps. | 60.24% | 2nd |
Turnover% | Plays graded Above Average or higher / total snaps. | 2.51% | 6th |
Big Play% | Great + Elite plays / total snaps. | 4.23% | 6th |
Poor Play% | Poor + Turnover plays / total snaps. | 9.51% | 5th |
Time to Throw | Average time from when the ball hits the QB's hands to when he releases it. | 2.56 | 2nd |
Time to Pressure | Average time QB experiences or reacts to pressure. | 2.35 | 3rd |
Pressure% | Total pressures / total snaps. | 28.54% | 2nd |
At-Fault Sack% | Sacks deemed QB's fault / total snaps. | 1.98% | 5th |
LOS On-Tar% | On-Tar Throw % behind the line of scrimmage. | 82.5% | 5th |
Short On-Tar% | On-Tar Throw % 1-9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. | 70.9% | 5th |
Medium On-Tar% | On-Tar Throw % 10-19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. | 51.9% | 6th |
Deep On-Tar% | On-Tar Throw % 20+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage. | 33.3% | 7th |
The Good:
Bo Nix showcases above average to good arm talent overall, highlighted by a compact throwing motion. While not in possession of a "cannon arm" he is capable of getting the ball into all levels of the field without issue, and delivers with above average velocity allowing him to fit the ball into tight spots when needed.
With upside in the athleticism and mobility department, Nix can create with his legs when plays breakdown on the backend. He has a good innate ability to escape pressure, and has good body control when throwing on the run. Although he does not possess elite speed at the quarterback position, he can make the edge in most cases with surprising burst.
His late game composure shines. In two years as a starting quarterback he has eight fourth quarter comebacks, and ten game winning drives. Seven of those game winning drives came in the 2025 season, which lead the league (per pro football reference.)
Bo's quick decision and release process led to the second quickest time to throw of all graded quarterbacks in 2025, coming in at 2.56 seconds, this quick release (and the overall high level his offensive line played at in 2025) lead to the second lowest pressure rate at 28.54%. This lead to Nix being one of the least sacked quarterbacks in the league, taking just 22 all season leading to a 9.5% pressure to sack ratio, 2nd in the NFL only to Brock Purdy despite having the third quickest time to pressure of graded quarterbacks (2.35 seconds).
His best stretch of graded games came between week 11 and week 15, where in 4 games against the Chiefs, Commanders, Raiders, and Packers, Nix averaged a 1.89 game score. This included his best statistical game against the Packers where he went 23/34 for 302 yards, 4 touchdowns and a 134.7 NFL passer rating (180.1 TPR). That game also saw his second highest graded half on the season, with a 2.45 (Week 5 against the Eagles Nix posted a 2.65 second half.) His two best graded starts of the season where he posted a 2.40 grade against both the Chiefs and Raiders in that same time span. He finished the season by posting an Average or better game grade in 6 of his last 7 games. He posted a season high 193.6 TPR at home against the Cowboys, in a 44-24 win, Nix posted a TPR north of 100 in 9 of his 17 starts, averaging a 108.6 TPR on the season.
Between the weeks 3 and 8 Nix recorded just 2 turnover worthy plays compared to 8 elite level plays (0.74% turnover rate compared 2.97% elite play rate.) showing his ability to play safe while still recording high level quarterback play.
The Bad:
Accuracy is a big concern for Nix after year two, where he finished sixth of graded quarterbacks in 2025 in. (65.3% On-Target)
He finished no better than fifth in any level of throwing, and was dead last in deep level on-target throwing hitting just 33.3% on-target deep. Some of this stems from his footwork and how it can get panicky at times when sensing pressure, but the tape is full of easy misses at all levels despite no pressure. This inaccuracy led to the 3rd worst poor play rate (9.51% ) and 3rd worst negative play % (24.04%).
He also struggles with anticipatory throws, with the majority of the Broncos offense coming off concepts that don't require it. When there was opportunities to attack defenses with anticipation he often threw late, creating dangerous throws and smaller windows.
A side effect of this is the pure amount of passing attempts thrown behind the line of scrimmage, or before the sticks (under 9 yards of air), as Nix leads the league in behind the line of scrimmage throwing attempts over the last two years (253), and was second in short level attempts in 2025. (288) Naturally, both his YPA (yards per attempt) and ADOT (average depth of target) suffer here. Nix finished 23rd of qualified quarterbacks (quarterbacks to hit 50% of 755 drop backs) for YPA with 6.4 and 18th in ADOT with 8.0. (He finished 20th and 14th, respectively in 2024 in those categories.) While Nix did attempt the fifth most deep balls in the 2025 season, he struggled with accuracy on them, especially on throws that required more anticipation as opposed to straight one-on-one Nine/Go routes.
Nix also struggles with play recognition and processing both pre and post snap, relying on a heavy amount of first read/designed target throws. This leads to a positive play rate that is last among graded quarterbacks in 2025 (16.91%), as throw difficulty and accuracy is reduced vastly in systems such as the one the Broncos are currently running. Nix's plus scrambling ability helps here as he can turn dead plays into positives by either extending and throwing or picking up yards with his legs, but the average to below average ability to read defenses or adjust to a defense pre-snap really hurts his overall ceiling in the NFL.
Nix recorded zero games that were graded good or better on the year, while recording 4 games bar or worse, weeks nine and ten saw back-to-back "Bad" graded games against the Texans on the road and Raiders at home, which was his worst graded game of the season. His other bad games came against the Jaguars in week 16 at home (-5.20) and the season opener against the Titans (-5.00). Inconsistency marred his season, Nix posted just 9 halves of football that were graded "Above Average" or better meaning the remaining 25 were "Average" or worse. 14 of those 25 were graded "Average" so at the very least the inconsistant play levels out to about average level quarterbacking.
His TPR (True Passer Rating) for the season came in at 108.6, good for fifth among graded quarterbacks, but was 24th in the league in that metric. With a league average of 94.7, he did grade above average overall in TPR, but 8 of his 17 starts saw his TPR below the league average mark, including a 21.5 clunker to end the year against the Chargers, a game that saw him register an ADOT of just 1.0 yards. In fact, all metrics besides one (Average Graded Score, 6th) that I track to quantify quarterbacking (NFL Passer Rating, TPR, PFF Grade) have him finish 5th among quarterbacks graded.
The Conclusion:
Bo Nix is pretty polarizing quarterback, while his raw stats look respectable on the surface (and even in his case, historic.) But when you peel back the layers of the onion you see some underlying issues with those numbers. There is no quarterback over the last two seasons that has been asked to throw the ball more than Bo Nix, and his 2025 season say a ANY/A (the stat most correlated with wins for a quarterback) of just 6.02, good for 21st in the league, and below the league average of 6.04.
There is a lot of empty calorie stats to get him to where he is statistically.
Now that's not to say he's a terrible quarterback, and will be a terrible quarterback, this is just context to those statistics. It should go without saying you don't produce at the level Nix has if you're a terrible quarterback.
But I do think he has a lot of areas to improve upon.
His footwork under pressure while in the pocket needs to be addressed, which in part will help his overall accuracy. My main concern in all this is that he's had 34 starts (36 including playoffs) in his NFL career and it's still a prevalent issue, not even mentioning the extensive experience he has had at the collegiate level with this.
Nix operated from under center a respectable 18% of his plays in 2025, with about 102 of those snaps being play-action, but his 7.1 ADOT on play-action throws would suggest these throws were mainly not designed to stretch the field, and the tape often shows that, as many designed play-action throws ended up as a misdirection to set up a screen.
Anticipatory and deeper hitting routes need to be more of a thing for Bo, in my opinion as well. It's been rumored that Sean Payton has been considering giving up play calling duties to Davis Webb. While I don't know if these rumors or true, nor do I know how Davis Webb likes to call an offense, my hope either way would be that they challenge Bo in this area, giving him more weapons to attack defenses with. He has the arm strength and drive on the ball to do so.
As it stands, Nix is a quarterback you can win with, and one you can hope to win because of moving forward if he can improve in some of these areas.