J.J. McCarthy - 2025 Season in Review
- IamCogs
- 19 hours ago
- 7 min read
The 2025 season was one that started off with a lot of hope, and even some promise, for both J.J. McCarthy and the Minnesota Vikings. After a 14 win season that came to an abrupt end in the wildcard round of the playoffs against the Los Angeles Rams, the Vikings moved on from Sam Darnold and tabbed the 2024 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy as their starting quarterback.
His first NFL start saw him engineer a hellacious comeback on the road against the division rival Chicago Bears, which included 21 fourth quarter points, all of which he was directly responsible for.
But the season never really righted itself from there, as both inconsistent play, and injury marred McCarthy's year.
McCarthy would miss a total of 7 games in 2025 due to three injuries, and coming off the heels of a knee injury that ended his 2024 season before it every began, there is some serious concern about his durability going into his third year in the NFL.
In this review we will take a look at some metrics, some positives, some negatives, some areas of improvement and a 2026 prediction.
The Metrics:
For more on the information presented in the graphic above, click here.
QB Tier: This is my person opinion on where I believe he should be ranked as a quarterback among the 32 starters: D, which puts him in the QB 24-28 range.
Archetype: Gunslinger, with his arm talent and penchant to push the ball down field (5th in the NFL in ADOT) McCarthy's aggressive approach to throwing the ball fits the gunslinger mentality perfectly.
Grade: This is the alphabetical score correlated to his average game score on the year. McCarthy, and by extension, the Minnesota Vikings offense struggled in 2025, while there were flashes few and far in-between, J.J. McCarthy finished 2025 with an F.
Metrics Breakdown
Quarterback ranking for each category is relative to the 7 quarterbacks graded in 2025.
Metric | Description | Value | Rank |
Avg. 1st Half | Average graded score for the 1st half. | -0.56 | 7th |
Avg. 2nd Half | Average graded score for the 2nd half. | -0.99 | 7th |
Avg. Game | Average graded score for a game. | -1.70 | 7th |
Good+ Games | Total Games with final grade "Good" or better. | 1 | t4th |
Bad- Games | Total Games with final grade "Bad" or worse. | 4 | t6th |
TPR | Average True Passer Rating. | 73.4 | 7th |
PFF | PFF Offensive Score for the season. | 61.8 | 7th |
Passer Rating | Season NFL Passer Rating. | 72.6 | 7th |
Adjusted% | Completions + drops / aimed throws (spikes/bats/throwaways excluded.) | 71.0% | 6th |
On-Target% | Throws that would have hit the intended receiving target (spikes/bats/throwaways excluded.) | 61.6% | 7th |
Positive Play% | Plays graded Above Average or higher / total snaps. | 19.94% | 4th |
Negative Play% | Plays graded Below Average or lowers / total snaps. | 30.98% | 7th |
Neutral Play% | Plays graded Average or Ungraded / total snaps. | 53.37% | 7th |
Turnover% | Plays graded Above Average or higher / total snaps. | 4.29% | 7th |
Big Play% | Great + Elite plays / total snaps. | 7.67% | 4th |
Poor Play% | Poor + Turnover plays / total snaps. | 15.34% | 1st |
Time to Throw | Average time from when the ball hits the QB's hands to when he releases it. | 2.75 | 3rd |
Time to Pressure | Average time QB experiences or reacts to pressure. | 2.42 | 4th |
Pressure% | Total pressures / total snaps. | 31.68% | 3rd |
At-Fault Sack% | Sacks deemed QB's fault / total snaps. | 4.60% | 1st |
LOS On-Tar% | On-Tar Throw % behind the line of scrimmage. | 84.6% | 3rd |
Short On-Tar% | On-Tar Throw % 1-9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. | 63.0% | 7th |
Medium On-Tar% | On-Tar Throw % 10-19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. | 54.5% | 5th |
Deep On-Tar% | On-Tar Throw % 20+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage. | 43.8% | 6th |
The Good:
J.J. McCarthy has sneaky mobility and athleticism, rushing for 4 touchdowns and nearly 5 yards per carry. This mobility helps him out in the pocket at times when he uses it to escape muddied pockets or quick pressure.
He shows a good throwing base with good lower half mechanics, anchors well when throwing and isn't afraid to stand in the pocket and deliver a ball with a hit baring down on him.
He had a respectable 19.94% Positive Play % (plays graded above average or higher divided by total plays graded), bolstered by a healthy 45.5% Adjusted Completion % in Deep passing. (14th in the NFL min. 20% of 85 att.)
He owns underrated and frankly, in my opinion, A tier arm talent, with the ability to generate fantastic drive on his throws, which in turn does not limit the levels he can attack a defense at. This has translated into the second deepest ADOT in the league for the intermediate of the field (14.6) with middle of the pack adjusted completion % (63.3%).
After posting just 1 positively graded game in his first 6 starts (1.30 against Chicago) where he averaged a game score of -4.06, he reeled off 4 consecutive positively graded games averaging a game score if 1.85, which includes his best start of the season against Dallas on the road (4.70), a game that saw his season high in BPR% (13.3%) and a season low PPR (3.3%). This shows positive trends upwards and something to hang your hat on after a difficult 2025 season that was marred with injuries on inconsistencies.
The Bad:
His throwing motion is a bit wide and awkward which ends up slowing down the release a bit. One of his most glaring issues is his inability to layer the ball/throw with touch. McCarthy essentially has one type of ball and that's a laser beam. This lack of throwing repertoire shirks his throwing windows causing inaccuracy at all levels of the field.
This is reflected in his on target throwing, where he finished last of the 7 quarterbacks I grade (61.6%) and finishing no better than 3rd (Behind LOS, 84.6%) at all levels. Naturally this bleeds into other metrics. His turnover worthy % was the worst of the 7 starters (4.29%) as well as his poor play % (15.34%), negative play % (30.98%), TPR (73.4, 34th of 36 quarterbacks to make 7 or more starts in 2025), PFF Offensive Score (61.8), and NFL Passer Rating (72.6). His 4.29% turnover worthy % was near double the 6th place quarterback (Bo Nix, 2.51%), byproducts of his inability to throw with touch and his early inability to struggle pre and post snap with identifying and reading opposing defenses.
And despite his above average mobility his pressure to sack % was 4th worst of quarterbacks with 10+ starts in 2025, sitting at 23.5%, his 4.60% at fault sack %, which lead the 7 quarterbacks I grade, did him no favors there. He did face a 31.68% pressure rate, good for 3rd highest of graded quarterbacks.
It's also worth mentioning that his durability is a legitimate concern. After missing 2024 with a grade 1 meniscus tear, J.J.'s sophomore campaign saw him suffer four more additional injuries, a high ankle sprain in week 2 that sidelined him for 5 weeks, a concussion in week 12 against the Packers sidelining him another game, a hand injury in week 16 against the Giants that put him out 1 more game, and he reinjured that same hand in the season finale against the Packers. While there has been no real history in college for J.J., it is worth concern that he has now had 5 different injuries, including a serious knee injury, and a semi-serious ankle issues that put him out of action for nearly 1/3 of the season.
He was also dead last in average graded game score, with a -1.70 average, nearly -1.20 worse than 6th place Bo Nix. His -0.56 average first half score and -0.99 average second half score were dead last of graded quarterbacks, and was tied for the most Bad- (total games graded bad or worse) games on the year with Bo Nix, despite making 7 less starts than the Broncos quarterback.
Coming out of the 2024 draft McCarthy was labeled one of the more pro-ready quarterbacks coming out of college due to the style of offense Michigan ran. That, however, did not translate over to the NFL in his redshirt year under center as his play-action numbers (54.4% Comp%, 3TD, 4INT, 63.1 Rating) were well below league average, after posting a 80.6% Comp%, 5TD, 1INT, 135.6 Rating with play-action in his last season at Michigan.
The Conclusion:
It's a very uphill battle for McCarthy as he heads into his third year. While year one was lost to injury, time learning the game and studying the league wasn't, as coach Kevin O'Connell and McCarthy devoted weeks studying the Vikings playbook, watching film, and taking detailed mental reps to get into form for the 2025 season. But that seemingly went for naught as McCarthy spent a majority of the 2025 season either struggling or dealing with injury.
In order to take a step in the right direction McCarthy MUST add to his throwing arsenal, namely adding the ability to throw layered and touch passes to all levels of the field. Accuracy also needs to be a priority, but part of this, like mentioned earlier, has to do with his limited ability to throw with variance.
The Vikings passing offense does translate pretty well overall from his days at Michigan, but one would think a better ground game would only serve to help the young quarterback, by not only limiting 2nd and 3rd and long situations, but also opening up a mor effective play-action attack.
He was dead last in neutral play % (plays graded average or ungraded/throwaway divided by total graded plays). Which doesn't sound like a bad thing, but when you consider his hyper inflated 15.34% bad play rate, you get a better picture as to why that is. Dropping that bad play rate down by just 5% will help his overall consistency.
My fear lies in my belief that year two is a make or break year for young quarterbacks, that is the year you need to see something that tells you he is capable of being the guy, and unfortunately those flashes were few and far in-between, albeit he put together a good stretch of football near the end of the season, against some lesser opposition. Which may serve as a jumpstart catalyst for McCarthy. It is fair to say, however, with his rookie season thrown out due to injury, and the numerous injuries he suffered in year two that his development arc may have been pushed back.
I could also see the Vikings bringing in a veteran quarterback (Flacco, Mariota...Cousins?!) to either provide mentorship or competition for McCarthy.
2026 is a huge prove it season for J.J. if improvement across the board isn't seen, I expect the Vikings to be drafting a quarterback or signing a bridge solution in 2027.